How the model works

The model scores each player from their underlying numbers, then ranks that score as a percentile among active players at the same position. A Valuo Index of 90 means the model rates them above 90% of players in their position.

score = 0.60 × production + 0.30 × availability + age adjustment

• Production is per 90 minutes. For attackers it is mostly expected goals and expected assists, with actual goals and assists weighted lower, since xG is the steadier signal. Defenders add clean-sheet and goals-conceded rates; keepers add saves.
• Shrinkage: every rate is pulled toward a below-average prior until a player has about 900 minutes. One good cameo can’t top the board, and new signings are marked provisional.
• Availability is the share of possible minutes played. Regular starters are worth more than rotation players with the same per-90 output.
• Age captures resale value: a premium up to 26, neutral at 26–28, and a growing discount from 29.
• Blending: early in a season, last season’s numbers count as up to half a season of evidence, fading as current minutes accrue.

All components are z-scored against pooled player-seasons at the same position (900+ minutes) from 2019/20 onward.

The current market signal is the player’s Fantasy Premier League price, ranked as a percentile within position. FPL prices move with the buying and selling of millions of managers, which makes them a live, crowd-priced read on how highly a player is rated.

It is a proxy, not a transfer fee. As the API-Football integration lands, real transfer fees for comparable players will join the market side and anchor values in euros.

Undervalued means the Valuo Index is at least 15 points above the Market Index: performance is ahead of reputation. Overvalued is the reverse, often ageing stars or players priced on past seasons. A signal needs 270+ minutes this season and a non-provisional rating.

Movers compare the Valuo Index now with three gameweeks ago and with the end of last season.

Premier League data comes from the public Fantasy Premier League API (Opta-sourced xG, minutes, goals and prices), synced nightly. Coverage of La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and MLS comes next through API-Football. Valuo does not scrape Transfermarkt.

Known limits: no contract-length data yet, and FPL does not separate penalty xG from open-play xG.